Sunday, July 18, 2010

Same Mountain, same slide, same advice

My May 3rd post is still very accurate... The markets are lurching and twisting. Many articles have come out showing an increase in freight volume and even rates. Don't get sucked in, it's temporary and its moderate. The fundamentals of the US ecomomy are still very grim. Obamanomics is perpetuating fear and uncertainty. This breeds conservative business reactions (no expansion, no hiring). Forget about Canada the US public mindset is still in the throws of recession no matter what the media propogates. A lot of the really "BAD" news still isn't hitting the main stream media, such as over a million backlogged home forclosures just to name one. Cap'n trade will be a spike in the coffin of the trucking industry. If it passes (low chance actually... at least according to current estimations) there will be HUGE polorization as some companies try and accomodate the political effects while others hedge against application. It'll create two approaches: old equipment-low overhead-low investment-dynamic business plans verses new equipment-higher overhead-higher investment-static business plans. The former approach will hedge their models on cap'n trade being recinded (if passed) while the latter embraces the "new" political paradym.

Canadian Lease/Owner operators should have one model... the first. The outcome is still far too complex to determine. In times of high volatility and risk minimise your exposure... in other words, get out of debt, stay out of debt... reduce your risk!