Monday, May 3, 2010

RECOVERY????

These economic times are not like history. Though indicators are up (for trucking) it is too early to express investment optimism. The US debt levels are at historic levels and do not indicate ANY reversal. Greek bonds were just rated as JUNK and the Euro plunged (US rose). These knee jerk reactions are just temporary. The entire global monetary system is in jepardy since governments around the world have been borrowing for decades. They are all monetarising their debt (printing money). Eventually this "fix" will fail as currencies from all around the world will collapse (simultaneously... within months of each other). Sounds drastic... it is. There are only a few situations that will reverse this slide down slippery slope. The US must stop borrowing, and reduce their governemnt spending by dramatic percentages (25-60%). I personally think this will not be possible or probable. THis means that some time in the next ten years or so global currency will be devalued. The eventual outcome has too many variables to call but serious non the less.

Any "recovery" will be lurching and grinding, false starts, turnarounds and setbacks. Lanes will shift, money will be made and lost over night...

This means that the only thing that is truely "safe" will be assets free of debt/leins. Look at what happened to Europe when they changed their currency, convertions killed equity and buying power of citizens. Very turbulent times. Even if I am wrong in my predictions, the advice is still good.... get out of debt, stay out of debt, equipment valuations should be primarily on fuel economy! NEVER upgrade equipment for tax purposes or because of company demands! FUEL ECONOM, FULE ECONOMY!, FUEL ECONOMY!